:Product: 0913RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Sep 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
13/1254Z from Region 2157 (S14W51). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15
Sep, 16 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 791 km/s at 12/2233Z. Total IMF reached 30 nT at 12/2251Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 12/2202Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 20
pfu at 12/2100Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Sep), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (15 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day
three (16 Sep). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     25/25/25
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Sep 145
Predicted   14 Sep-16 Sep 145/140/135
90 Day Mean        13 Sep 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep  035/038
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep  014/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep  012/022-008/008-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/15/30
Minor Storm           20/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/30
Major-severe storm    50/25/40