:Product: 0915RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Sep 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
15/0027Z from Region 2157 (S15W74). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (16 Sep, 17 Sep) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (18 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 509 km/s at
14/2318Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/2335Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -1 nT at 15/0808Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Sep), quiet to active levels on day
two (17 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Sep).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day one (16 Sep) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
day two (17 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
Class M    50/40/30
Class X    15/10/05
Proton     15/10/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Sep 133
Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep 130/125/125
90 Day Mean        15 Sep 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep  004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  006/005-008/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep-18 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/35/15
Minor Storm           01/15/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    20/50/25