:Product: 0917RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Sep 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
17/1948Z from Region 2158 (N15W93). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (18 Sep) and likely to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (19 Sep,
20 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
416 km/s at 16/2120Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/2058Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 16/2240Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep, 20
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
Class M    30/20/20
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Sep 125
Predicted   18 Sep-20 Sep 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        17 Sep 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep-20 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20