:Product: 0918RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Sep 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
18/0841Z from Region 2169 (N05E53). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Sep,
20 Sep, 21 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
424 km/s at 17/2242Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 17/2316Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1828Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21
Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Sep 120
Predicted   19 Sep-21 Sep 120/115/115
90 Day Mean        18 Sep 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    20/20/15