:Product: 0920RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Sep 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
20/1254Z from Region 2171 (S10E53). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Sep,
22 Sep, 23 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 586 km/s at
20/1642Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 19/2359Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 20/0015Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Sep, 23
Sep) and quiet levels on day two (22 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           20 Sep 119
Predicted   21 Sep-23 Sep 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        20 Sep 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep  023/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep  008/008-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/10/20
Minor Storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    30/10/30