:Product: 0921RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Sep 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
21/1153Z from Region 2166 (N11W55). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep, 24 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
637 km/s at 21/0344Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/0801Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 21/0324Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Sep 124
Predicted   22 Sep-24 Sep 125/125/130
90 Day Mean        21 Sep 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep  004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep  007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep  006/005-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/30/30