:Product: 0924RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Sep 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
23/2316Z from Region 2172 (S11E36). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep,
27 Sep).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 474 km/s at 24/2014Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 24/1803Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 24/1827Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 333
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep).

III.  Event probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Sep 145
Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep 150/155/160
90 Day Mean        24 Sep 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Sep  018/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  015/018-010/012-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep-27 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor Storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    50/50/40