:Product: 0926RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Sep 26 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 26/0544Z from Region 2175 (N16W25). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 494 km/s at 26/1404Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 26/0724Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 26/1246Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1093 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Sep, 28 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep, 29 Sep). III. Event probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep Class M 65/65/65 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 26 Sep 170 Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 170/170/175 90 Day Mean 26 Sep 134 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 013/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 011/015-011/015-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/35 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 50/50/50