:Product: 0927RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Sep 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 27/0837Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 481 km/s at 27/0306Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 27/2035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 27/0022Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1167 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (29 Sep, 30 Sep). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep). III. Event probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep Class M 65/65/65 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Sep 181 Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 180/185/185 90 Day Mean 27 Sep 135 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 012/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 011/015-011/012-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/25 Minor Storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 50/50/35