:Product: 1003RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Oct 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 03/0648Z from Region 2173 (S13W99). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day one (04 Oct) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 402 km/s at 02/2330Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/2255Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 02/2134Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 624 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (04 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct). III. Event probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct Class M 35/20/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Oct 137 Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 134 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 013/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 005/005-007/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/25/25