:Product: 1004RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
03/2215Z from Region 2172 (S08W91). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (05 Oct) and likely to
be low on days two and three (06 Oct, 07 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 416 km/s at
04/1859Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 04/1809Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -9 nT at 04/1949Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 395 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (05 Oct, 06 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (07 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M    15/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Oct 128
Predicted   05 Oct-07 Oct 125/120/120
90 Day Mean        04 Oct 133

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct  003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct  004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct  007/010-008/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/15
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/20
Major-severe storm    40/25/20