:Product: 1006RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
06/1707Z from Region 2185 (S14E43). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
453 km/s at 05/2345Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/0945Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/0059Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 323 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Oct 130
Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct 125/125/125
90 Day Mean        06 Oct 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20