:Product: 1007RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Oct 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/1600Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
421 km/s at 06/2342Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 259 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (08 Oct, 09 Oct, 10
Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Oct 125
Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct 125/125/120
90 Day Mean        07 Oct 131

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  006/007-006/005-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    20/20/20