:Product: 1008RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Oct 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
08/1651Z from Region 2182 (S16W42). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
387 km/s at 08/2007Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 08/0900Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 08/1014Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 310 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at mostly quiet levels on days one and two (09 Oct, 10 Oct) with a
chance for isolated active periods early on 09 Oct due to an enhanced
magnetic field and possible night sector sub-storming. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day three (11 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Oct 126
Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct 125/120/115
90 Day Mean        08 Oct 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct  006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/20/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/25