:Product: 1013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Oct,
15 Oct, 16 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 437 km/s at
13/1633Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 13/1136Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/2054Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Oct, 15 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (16 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 113
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct 115/120/125
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 130

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    25/25/25