:Product: 1018RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Oct 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
18/0758Z from Region 2192 (S13E56). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
532 km/s at 18/0615Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 18/1905Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 17/2347Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 458 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (19 Oct, 20 Oct)
and quiet to active levels on day three (21 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    15/15/15
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Oct 160
Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct 165/170/175
90 Day Mean        18 Oct 132

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  008/010-010/012-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/30/40