:Product: 1019RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Oct 19 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 19/0503Z from Region 2192 (S13E43). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 513 km/s at 19/0426Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 19/1354Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 19/1741Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 272 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct). III. Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct Class M 60/60/60 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Oct 173 Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 175/180/180 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 133 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 011/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 010/012-013/015-013/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor Storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 30/40/40