:Product: 1021RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Oct 21 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 20/2255Z from Region 2192 (S13E30). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 697 km/s at 21/1308Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 21/0126Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 20/2116Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2238 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 Oct, 23 Oct) and unsettled levels on day three (24 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct). III. Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct Class M 65/65/65 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Oct 199 Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 205/210/210 90 Day Mean 21 Oct 135 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 017/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 013/015-014/015-013/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/30 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/35 Major-severe storm 40/40/40