:Product: 1024RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Oct 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 24/0748Z from Region 2192 (S12W21). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 512 km/s at 24/0635Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/0059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/1435Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6243 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Oct, 26 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold 25-27 Oct. III. Event probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct Class M 85/85/85 Class X 45/45/45 Proton 35/40/45 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 24 Oct 218 Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 220/220/220 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 139 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 009/010-007/010-011/012 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/30 Minor Storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/30 Major-severe storm 25/25/40