:Product: 1027RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Oct 27 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 27/1447Z from Region 2192 (S12W59). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be high on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 476 km/s at 27/0417Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/1649Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 27/1735Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 758 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (28 Oct, 29 Oct, 30 Oct). III. Event probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct Class M 85/85/85 Class X 55/55/55 Proton 45/45/45 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Oct 188 Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 165/150/140 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 142 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 011/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 008/012-008/010-007/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct-30 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/25/20