:Product: 1028RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Oct 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at
28/0332Z from Region 2192 (S13W71). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (29 Oct, 30 Oct)
and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three
(31 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
495 km/s at 28/0105Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/2112Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 27/2141Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 891 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (29 Oct, 31
Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day two (30 Oct). Protons have a
chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (29 Oct, 30 Oct) and
have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (31 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
Class M    85/85/65
Class X    45/45/35
Proton     45/45/35
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Oct 167
Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct 155/145/135
90 Day Mean        28 Oct 142

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  015/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Oct  014/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  008/010-012/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct-31 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/30
Major-severe storm    35/40/35