:Product: 1030RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Oct 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
30/0135Z from Region 2192 (S15W94). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (31 Oct) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares
on days two and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 365 km/s at
30/0844Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 30/2003Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0808Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2252 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (31 Oct,
01 Nov, 02 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (31 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     10/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Oct 140
Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov 130/130/130
90 Day Mean        30 Oct 141

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/35/35