:Product: 1102RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Nov 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
02/1703Z from Region 2201 (S05E23). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (03 Nov,
04 Nov, 05 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
539 km/s at 01/2252Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 02/0251Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 02/1212Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9 pfu at
02/2045Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 827 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (03 Nov, 05 Nov)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (04 Nov). Protons greater than
10 Mev are likely to cross threshold on day one (03 Nov) and have a
chance of crossing threshold on day two (04 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
Class M    10/10/10
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     70/30/01
PCAF       yellow

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Nov 124
Predicted   03 Nov-05 Nov 120/120/118
90 Day Mean        02 Nov 141

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov  005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov  009/012-007/010-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor Storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/30/40