:Product: 1105RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Nov 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
05/0947Z from Region 2205 (N16E56). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Nov, 07
Nov, 08 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
597 km/s at 05/1939Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 05/0521Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 05/0647Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (06 Nov, 08
Nov) and quiet to active levels on day two (07 Nov). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Nov,
07 Nov, 08 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Nov 135
Predicted   06 Nov-08 Nov 135/135/130
90 Day Mean        05 Nov 140

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov  012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov  013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov  007/008-009/010-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/35/20
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/45/30