:Product: 1106RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Nov 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
06/0346Z from Region 2205 (N15E46). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08
Nov, 09 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
575 km/s at 05/2123Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 06/1137Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/2047Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (07 Nov,
08 Nov, 09 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (07 Nov, 08 Nov, 09 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Nov 136
Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov 135/140/140
90 Day Mean        06 Nov 140

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Nov  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  007/008-007/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov-09 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    30/30/30