:Product: 1108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
08/1755Z from Region 2205 (N15E18). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10
Nov, 11 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
533 km/s at 08/0704Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 07/2114Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2106Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Nov), quiet to major
storm levels on day two (10 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (11 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Nov 132
Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov 135/135/145
90 Day Mean        08 Nov 141

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  008/008-025/034-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/35
Minor Storm           05/35/30
Major-severe storm    01/25/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/05/05
Minor Storm           30/20/20
Major-severe storm    30/75/70