:Product: 1109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
09/1532Z from Region 2205 (N15E05). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11
Nov, 12 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
476 km/s at 09/1811Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 09/2100Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/1710Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (10 Nov), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (11 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (12 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (10 Nov, 11 Nov, 12 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M    70/70/70
Class X    30/30/30
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Nov 132
Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov 135/145/150
90 Day Mean        09 Nov 141

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  025/034-014/018-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/25
Minor Storm           35/30/05
Major-severe storm    25/15/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/05/15
Minor Storm           20/20/30
Major-severe storm    75/70/30