:Product: 1111RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Nov 11 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 11/1122Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (12 Nov) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day two (13 Nov) and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three (14 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 555 km/s at 10/2122Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 11/1942Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 11/2048Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov). III. Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov Class M 50/60/70 Class X 10/20/30 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Nov 142 Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 165/180/180 90 Day Mean 11 Nov 142 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 016/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 005/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/20/20