:Product: 1112RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Nov 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 316 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Nov 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 12/1046Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (13 Nov) and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days two and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 657 km/s at 12/0348Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 11/2145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 11/2135Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov, 15 Nov). III. Event probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov Class M 60/70/70 Class X 20/30/30 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Nov 153 Predicted 13 Nov-15 Nov 165/180/180 90 Day Mean 12 Nov 143 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Nov 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Nov 011/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Nov-15 Nov 008/008-008/008-008/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Nov-15 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/25/25