:Product: 1114RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Nov 14 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 14/0748Z from Region 2209 (S15E56). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 592 km/s at 14/1844Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 14/1400Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 14/1651Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (15 Nov, 17 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (16 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Nov, 16 Nov, 17 Nov). III. Event probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov Class M 60/60/60 Class X 20/20/20 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Nov 161 Predicted 15 Nov-17 Nov 165/165/170 90 Day Mean 14 Nov 144 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov 008/010-015/020-011/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/35/30 Minor Storm 05/25/10 Major-severe storm 01/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/55/40