:Product: 1116RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Nov 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
16/1748Z from Region 2209 (S15E31). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18
Nov, 19 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 706 km/s at 16/0556Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 15/2100Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/0042Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3557
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (17 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (18 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (19 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov, 19 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M    65/65/65
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Nov 172
Predicted   17 Nov-19 Nov 165/170/170
90 Day Mean        16 Nov 145

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov  013/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov  019/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov  014/018-011/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/20
Minor Storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/15/15
Minor Storm           25/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/40/25