:Product: 1118RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Nov 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
18/0809Z from Region 2209 (S13E07). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
518 km/s at 18/0121Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/2016Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1119Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3095 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20
Nov, 21 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Nov 167
Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov 170/175/180
90 Day Mean        18 Nov 146

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov  009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  012/012-012/012-012/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/40/40