:Product: 1119RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Nov 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21 Nov,
22 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
463 km/s at 19/0717Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/2152Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 18/2226Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2815 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Nov, 21 Nov) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Nov). Protons have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (20 Nov, 21
Nov, 22 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           19 Nov 170
Predicted   20 Nov-22 Nov 175/180/185
90 Day Mean        19 Nov 147

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov  012/012-012/012-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov-22 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor Storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/40/30