:Product: 1121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Nov 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
21/0445Z from Region 2209 (S15W29). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23
Nov, 24 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
440 km/s at 21/1637Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/1127Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/1321Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 769 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23
Nov, 24 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days
one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    25/25/25
Proton     20/20/20
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Nov 163
Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov 165/165/170
90 Day Mean        21 Nov 147

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov  014/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  012/012-010/015-010/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor Storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/40/40