:Product: 1122RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Nov 22 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 22/0101Z from Region 2209 (S15W43). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 420 km/s at 22/1148Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 22/2033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 22/1341Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 535 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 Nov, 24 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (25 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov). III. Event probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov Class M 60/60/60 Class X 25/25/25 Proton 20/20/20 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Nov 167 Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 170/170/150 90 Day Mean 22 Nov 148 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 009/010-007/008-005/006 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/15/05 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/15 Major-severe storm 30/25/10