:Product: 1128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Nov 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
28/0040Z from Region 2222 (S20E44). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 Nov, 30 Nov,
01 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
412 km/s at 28/1242Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 28/1459Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 28/1215Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 439 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (29 Nov, 30 Nov) and quiet to
active levels on day three (01 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M    40/45/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Nov 181
Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec 185/185/185
90 Day Mean        28 Nov 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov  004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  006/005-006/005-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/25
Minor Storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/30