:Product: 1129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Nov 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
29/0821Z from Region 2222 (S21E30). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec,
02 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 436 km/s at
29/1531Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 29/0406Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -11 nT at 29/0351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 255 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Nov) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M    45/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Nov 177
Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec 180/180/180
90 Day Mean        29 Nov 151

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  006/005-011/015-009/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/25/25
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/30/30