:Product: 1130RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Nov 30 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 30/1719Z from Region 2221 (N03E16). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 450 km/s at 30/0504Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 29/2301Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 30/1944Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 440 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Dec, 02 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (03 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec). III. Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec Class M 50/50/50 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Nov 177 Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 180/180/180 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 152 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 005/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 011/012-009/010-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/30 Major-severe storm 30/30/25