:Product: 1201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/0641Z from Region 2222 (S21E03). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec,
04 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
615 km/s at 01/2028Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 01/1748Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 01/2024Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 203 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Dec) and quiet levels on
days two and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Dec 168
Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec 165/160/160
90 Day Mean        01 Dec 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  009/010-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20