:Product: 1202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
02/1555Z from Region 2222 (S19W10). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec,
05 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
648 km/s at 02/0259Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/2144Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 01/2144Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (03 Dec,
04 Dec, 05 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Dec 168
Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec 165/165/160
90 Day Mean        02 Dec 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20