:Product: 1204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 338 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
04/0810Z from Region 2222 (S19W37). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Dec, 06 Dec,
07 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
568 km/s at 04/1337Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 04/0543Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 04/2043Z.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           04 Dec 158
Predicted   05 Dec-07 Dec 150/150/145
90 Day Mean        04 Dec 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Dec  007/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Dec  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Dec-07 Dec  007/008-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Dec-07 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    20/20/20