:Product: 1205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/1225Z from Region 2222 (S20W51). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec,
08 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
524 km/s at 04/2109Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 05/0440Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 04/2151Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 241 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Dec 137
Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec 135/135/140
90 Day Mean        05 Dec 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  007/008-008/010-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    20/30/30