:Product: 1206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
06/1244Z from Region 2222 (S20W64). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec,
09 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
693 km/s at 06/2051Z. Total IMF reached 25 nT at 06/1430Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -14 nT at 06/1826Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 279 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (07 Dec, 08 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M    40/30/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Dec 129
Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec 130/135/140
90 Day Mean        06 Dec 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  009/010-007/008-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor Storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/30
Major-severe storm    40/30/30