:Product: 1208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
08/0039Z from Region 2222 (S19W91). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
806 km/s at 08/0028Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 08/1206Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 08/1612Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9964 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled levels on day one (09 Dec) and quiet levels on days
two and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M    20/20/20
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Dec 133
Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec 135/145/155
90 Day Mean        08 Dec 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  019/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec  010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  011/015-007/008-006/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor Storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    35/20/20