:Product: 1209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
09/1024Z from Region 2230 (S14E22). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (10 Dec) and expected to
be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (11 Dec,
12 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
734 km/s at 09/0010Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 09/1848Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 09/1726Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5719 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12
Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M    20/25/30
Class X    01/01/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Dec 140
Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec 145/155/165
90 Day Mean        09 Dec 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  007/008-007/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/10
Minor Storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/30/20
Major-severe storm    35/35/10