:Product: 1210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
10/0924Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec,
13 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
571 km/s at 10/0028Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/0157Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/2126Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2140 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Dec), quiet levels on
day two (12 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Dec 150
Predicted   11 Dec-13 Dec 155/165/170
90 Day Mean        10 Dec 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec  012/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec  009/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec  008/008-006/005-011/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/10/40
Minor Storm           05/01/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           30/20/30
Major-severe storm    35/10/55