:Product: 1212RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 346 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
12/1440Z from Region 2234 (N04W12). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Dec, 14 Dec,
15 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 697 km/s at 12/2059Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 12/0122Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 12/1040Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2927
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (13 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (14 Dec, 15 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           12 Dec 154
Predicted   13 Dec-15 Dec 160/165/170
90 Day Mean        12 Dec 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Dec  004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Dec  015/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Dec-15 Dec  015/018-012/015-013/015

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Dec-15 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/40/40
Minor Storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           25/30/30
Major-severe storm    65/55/55