:Product: 1214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/1933Z from Region 2242 (S20E38). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
512 km/s at 13/2232Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/2025Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 14/1125Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at
14/1020Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 816 pfu. Afr data unavailable due to non-receipt.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (15 Dec, 17
Dec) and quiet to active levels on day two (16 Dec). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Dec,
16 Dec, 17 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 166
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec 170/170/170
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 152

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec   NA/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  008/008-009/012-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/30/25
Minor Storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           25/35/30
Major-severe storm    20/40/30