:Product: 1215RSGA.txt :Issued: 2014 Dec 15 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 15/0140Z from Region 2242 (S19E24). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 556 km/s at 15/1855Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 15/0543Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/0152Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1775 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec). III. Event probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec Class M 40/40/40 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Dec 169 Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 153 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 011/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 010/012-010/010-007/008 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/15 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 45/30/20