:Product: 1216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2014 Dec 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2014

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
16/1140Z from Region 2242 (S19E11). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
487 km/s at 16/0214Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 15/2103Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/1235Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 958 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (17 Dec,
18 Dec, 19 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on
days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     10/10/10
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Dec 185
Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec 185/185/185
90 Day Mean        16 Dec 153

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  011/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  010/010-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           30/25/25
Major-severe storm    30/20/20